Tesla is targeting affordability and volume. Its system is designed to run on modified Model 3 and Y platforms, with plans to deploy purpose-built Robotaxi vehicles by 2026. The cost of outfitting 100,000 Robotaxis with Tesla’s system is under $1.5 billion. That same fleet, if built using LiDAR-based systems, could cost $15 billion or more
Tesla’s vertically integrated approach allows it to standardize training, inference, deployment, and vehicle production. Waymo, by comparison, must partner with Zeekr, Jaguar, and others to build its vehicles, adding time and complexity.
Its software, AI training infrastructure, and cost structure all align with long-term leadership in autonomous ride-hailing.
The 2025 pilot launch in Austin and the Aug. 8 unveiling of the dedicated Robotaxi vehicle will be pivotal moments. If Tesla delivers even partial Level 4 capability within the next 12-18 months in limited markets, its cost advantage and scalability will overwhelm higher-cost LiDAR-based competitors. The race will then shift from R&D to monetization—and Tesla appears poised to lead that phase as well.
Alphabet—Waymo’s parent company—has quietly benefited from the Robotaxi narrative. Shares of Alphabet have risen in the past month, partially in response to rising investor recognition of Waymo’s operational lead.
The success of Tesla and Waymo may not be mutually exclusive—both could represent dominant, but fundamentally different, models of AI-powered mobility.
The June 2025 pilot launch in Austin has been postponed. A group of Democratic lawmakers in Texas have asked Tesla to delay the launch until September 1st, when new autonomous driving regulations are set to take effect. The lawmakers cite public safety and building public trust as reasons for the delay.
Dr. Rob Longwell
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